It was all terribly stupid, even back on 2019, when US (ill thought out) policy decided to add Chinese companies to the 'entity list'.
It's now 2025 and ALL of China's semiconductor plans (which were put on fast forward as a result of 'sanctions') are either already showing the fruits of that effort, or are rumoured to do so soon.
https://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=5264
https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/china-developed-euv-lithography-could-trial-in-2025/
https://techwireasia.com/2023/05/the-challenges-of-building-huaweis-next-generation-metaerp/
https://www.techinasia.com/news/huaweis-harmonyos-surpasses-ios-china
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/huawei-2024-revenue-surges-to-near-record-high-on-smartphone-comeback.html
AI is simply another rung on the ladder here (back in 2019 it was 5G) but let's not forget that AI was already roadmapped in China back then as much as it was in the US before this nonsense really got underway with Trump.
Industry watchers are now almost universally indicating that the US China policy has failed or outright backfired. Especially on technology.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/06/13/americas-assassination-attempt-on-huawei-is-backfiring
https://www.rcrwireless.com/20240819/analyst-angle/kagan-years-after-us-ordered-them-out-huawei-is-stronger-than-ever
As a result, we are seeing even more stupid decisions popping up on a daily basis. To the point where the BIS was actually 'live updating' its page on a new (and yet another) ban on Ascend AI processors, this time worldwide, and threatening criminal action against anyone worldwide using them without a US authorised licence. It listed three Ascend chips and even spelt one of them incorrectly! Incredible.
Jensen Huang recently had to go to the White House after taking a $5B charge due to the everchanging US AI chip policy and try his best to explain to the 'hawks' how much US policy was causing harm to the company while also pushing to get Biden's AI diffusion rules taken off the boiler. He had to remind them that, financially, they alone stood to lose between fifty and sixty billion dollars in trade. Will we now have to add Apple to the list?
Jensen knows where his competitors are:
"Jensen Huang says Huawei is the 'single most formidable' tech company in China"
"Huawei's presence in AI is growing every single year,"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jensen-huang-says-huawei-single-085654497.html
He is not wrong and now Huawei is rumoured to be taking its already extreme manufacturing verticality even further with control over its entire semiconductor stack, from chip design right to manufacturing with everything in between.
That, after going through an absolutely brutal culling of US technology in its products (mostly favouring Chinese companies instead) starving US technology interests of massive revenues.
https://www.asiafinancial.com/huawei-replaces-13000-us-banned-parts-as-it-plots-fightback
If the US weaponises things, expect de-Americanisation to grow as US assets become toxic.
Jensen's words could well have been Tim Cook's. They are both in very similar situations from the same competitor and US policy decisions.
Huawei is now shipping it's Cloud Matrix 384 optically enhanced (zero copper) solutions to customers and is poised to take up the slack left by Nvidia.
https://www.lightreading.com/ai-machine-learning/huawei-pitches-new-ai-cloud-kit-as-nvidia-alternative
Four years ago it was the US semiconductor industry as a whole (representing over 1,000 US companies) that tried to warn of the dangers of restrictions.
Now two senators have written a letter asking for HarmonyOS to be banned too. Again worldwide!
Apart from the obvious extraterritorial overreach that is on show here, the US administration just can't seem take in what it has done to itself.
Desperate times need desperate measures I suppose but no one taking these decisions seems to have understood that the damage was long done (back in 2019). It's too late now. The genie is out of the bottle and isn't ever going back.
Trump used to say China wouldn't progress 'on his watch'. He will probably never fully understand (or admit to) the damage he has caused.
Apple may well end up being collateral damage here and, just like Nvidia, could easily find it even harder to progress in China with these 'persistent headwinds' as Tim said recently.
If things weren't tough enough already with AI, the last thing Apple needs is even more hurdles.
